'Tis that time of year again - tomorrow morning the Oscar nominations will sound forth from the lovely lips of Anne Hathaway. This year the nominations are being followed with (slightly) more interest than usual for one main reason: the Academy have this year doubled the number of Best Picture nominees to 10. The decision is quite clearly commercially motivated, the logic being that 10 nominees mean it is more likely an audience favourite, rather than just niche awards bait, will be noticed, thus bringing in more viewers to the flagging telecast. So goes the reasoning anyway.
With that in mind, it leaves the field slightly more open than usual. In recent years it was often pretty easy to guess what the five would be before they were announced. This year, though, that is not so much the case. There are shoe-ins for at least half the spots, but there is also the opportunity for a slight surprise or two.
Putting my reputation on the line, I now give you what I think the 10 will look like. These are not what I think they should be, just what I think they will be. But enough stalling. Here goes:
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Up
Invictus
An Education
Crazy Heart
A Serious Man
The top 5, I think, are certain. Less so with the rest, in increasing order of uncertainty. Other films with a shot include Star Trek, District 9 (both of which received a nom for Best Pic from the Producers' Guild of America, though I would be surprised if they receive the same attention from the Academy), Nine, A Single Man, and The Last Station. Perhaps even Julie & Julia because of the Streep factor, or The Blind Side because of its box office takings.
For the record, I predict the eventual winner will be The Hurt Locker, which is hoovering up most of the big prizes as we speak. So there you have it.
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