There are no doubt many, many crossed fingers in Hollywood right now, particularly executives at 20th Century Fox. These are the gents who have bankrolled James Cameron's upcoming mega-monster-epic-behemoth, Avatar, to the tune of anything up to $500 million (depending on whose figures are being quoted). Simply put, this film needs to be a massive hit to even come close to breaking even.
It's impossible to deny that the buzz around the film has been poor, and bordering on poisonous in some circles. After years of wait, hype, and speculation, the trailer hit a few months back and met with a resounding "Is that it?" from notoriously fickle, hard-to-please film geeks. Even worse, the general public seem to be completely indifferent. For a film to be a huge hit, the excitement needs to permeate the widest possible demographic, from hardcore fanboys to occasional cinemagoers. Outside publicity/controversy helps (Heath Ledger's passing no doubt added hugely to the mystique and must-see quality that The Dark Knight acquired), and although there has been some discussion surrounding the massive cost of Avatar and its supposedly revolutionary technology, there really seems to be little widespread interest. I would like to be wrong, because it's simply good for the health of the industry if a film hits big, regardless of its quality. But I expect not.
I don't want to offer predictions here, though, whether or not Cameron's folly will be a sensible investment in the long run. What concerns me is that people are judging this film before seeing it. Of course, that happens all the time, especially in the incredibly cynical "we hate everything" world of the rabid geek (just go and read any talkback on Ain't It Cool News). But it slightly saddens me that there aren't more people commending Cameron for not just doing what everyone else is doing, and going for the easy, safe, quick buck.
Seriously, what is the last blockbuster film you can think of that is not a sequel, remake, adaptation, or based on a widely known toy brand? I.e., that is actually an original screenplay? (Those smartypants who claim that Avatar is simply Dances With Wolves in space, or Ferngully, or whatever, can shut up. I'm not suggesting this film will necessarily be a beacon of innovation on a narrative level. But it is bringing us new characters and a new world that has not been seen before.) The days where the likes of The Matrix can come along and shock us with its energy and vision seem to be behind us, as studios simply seek the next pre-sold comic book property to adapt, rather than risk their money on something new. Of course, the brand being sold here is James Cameron himself, but, especially with him having taken a 12-year post-"King of the World" hiatus from narrative features, his name surely carries less weight than it once did.
I'm not even that bothered about Avatar's much-ballyhooed technical advances. All the fancy 3D and amazing effects in the world are simply an adjunct to the most important part, the quality of the film itself. If the technology lives up to the hype, so much the better. But, going by the trailers, absolute photorealism in CGI has still not been achieved. Cameron has not been helping himself in this regard, making typically overblown statements, indicating that the film will change cinema as we know it. Such inflated comments simply add fuel to the sceptics' fire and set up the director for an even greater potential fall, doing the film no favours.
Anyway, I'll be lining up to see it when it's finally unleashed, with an open mind and a sense of tentative optimism. I doubt it'll initiate the cinematic revolution that has been promised, or even be the biggest hit of the year, but I'm sure it will be memorable one way or the other - and at least it's not another bloody sequel. When was the last time Cameron let us down?
