Will Spider-Man Have Legs?

Well, looks like my very first box office prediction of the summer has turned out to be a bit wide of the mark. Great way to start.

According to early estimates, Spider-Man 3 has blasted past the opening weekend record set by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest last year ($135m), reaping an astounding $148m in North America alone. Include worldwide receipts and it's already made $375m. Wow.

I predicted $125m - I thought it would be a big hit (that would've put it second in all-time weekends) but I personally wasn't hugely hyped for it, so I thought my feelings might be shared by others. I still went to see it on opening day though, and apparently everyone else and their grandmother did too.

Unless it drops like a stone, Spidey 3 looks guaranteed to be the highest grossing film of the series, with the first instalment's $403.7m total to beat. But it may not be a shoe-in, because the general word of mouth hasn't been stellar. Or, at least, the reviews haven't. It's a similar pattern to that of POTC: DMC, because that wasn't particularly well-reviewed but the punters still went in their droves.

If Spidey follows the trend of Pirates, the superhero flick should finish with around $465m (domestic), which surely isn't going to happen. Comic book films tend to be more front-loaded than others, with the most extreme example being last year's X-Men: The Last Stand, which had a surprisingly huge opening weekend of $102m but only made $234m in total. The average big blockbuster these days seems to make about a third of its money in the first weekend, but with Spidey I expect a little more. Add to that the fact that in Spidey's third week Shrek 3 opens in the US, followed by Pirates 3 the following week, and Spider-Man 3 may indeed struggle to top the first film's grosses.

All of which is rather irrelevant, really. More importantly, how good is it? I have to admit, I didn't think it was brilliant. My review spells out my thoughts. Interestingly, despite my underwhelmed-ness, I really want to see it again already. Same thing happened with Dead Man's Chest, and I now like that film a lot.

I have plenty more to say about Spider-Man 3, but I'll keep the numbers to a minimum next time. Honest.

UPDATE: Double wow. Sony underestimated it. The actual total is $151m! It would really have to drop like a stone to not top the first one now.