Huzzah! I predicted 8 of the 10 Best Picture nominees. No Invictus and Crazy Heart, whose spots were instead taken by District 9 and The Blind Side (both of which I called in my "possible" mentions). On to some random observations...
- The 10 BPs represent quite a good spread, from tiny indie (Britflick-that-could An Education) to records-splattering monster (you know what). Funnily enough, though, expanding the field to 10 probably didn't change that very much - if there were still only 5 noms, they almost certainly would've been Hurt Locker, Avatar, Up in the Air, Precious, and Inglourious Basterds, a selection that itself is quite appealingly varied, including two $100m+ grossers (one of which is about to fly past $600m). Very much a contrast to recent sets of nominees, which have been almost exclusively small, minority appeal flicks. Not that they should be any less deserving, of course, it's just nice to have a cross-section.
- Leading the way are Locker and Avatar with 9 noms each - impressive but not massive as the records go (Slumdog got more last year, for example). Trailing close behind, pleasingly, is Basterds with 8 - and it has a right to feel aggrieved that it didn't get 9 too, as the overlooked Melanie Laurent easily deserved a nom. Nine didn't get 9 noms, incidentally. It got 4.
- Invictus always looked like it would've been a 'make up the numbers' nominee for BP. That it didn't make it reflects its indifferent reception. Matt Damon getting a nom though was a little suprising - many thought that if he did receive one it would be for The Informant!.
- Need any proof that the Academy voters are swayed by box office? The Blind Side.
- Crazy Heart is set to become the latest in a long line of films whose performances clean up in a specific acting category, but get completely overlooked elsewhere. See also: Walk the Line, Monster, The Last King of Scotland, etc. It's a shame, because many of these films deserve to be known for more than just vehicles to get their stars awards.
- Recent winners of Best Picture usually haven't got much notice in the acting categories. Slumdog Millionaire, Crash, The Departed, Return of the King. The trend will continue this year - either Hurt Locker or Avatar will win, but neither will win any acting gongs. Locker's Jeremy Renner did at least get nominated; none of Avatar's did.
- It's interesting that many of this year's BPs faced poor or indeed non-existent buzz before they were released. Some even didn't get that much buzz immediately after being released. I didn't hear much about An Education until the BAFTAs suddenly decided it was worth loads of noms. The Hurt Locker, too, though very well reviewed, didn't seem to have much awards traction until recently. Now it's the front runner.
- Yay for In the Loop getting screenplay notice! I watched it last week and it's fan-f*cking-tastic. Sorry about the swearing, but it seems appropriate for the film.
- Up becomes the second ever animated film to contest BP, after Beauty and the Beast, though its achievement is lessened by the whole '10 nominees' thing. I would've put money on nearly all Pixar's films being nominated for BP if there had always been 10 noms.
- Why only three nominees for visual effects? There are loads that deserve a look-in there. Watchmen especially.
That's all I can think of, for now. All in all, a pretty good, well-rounded set of nominations, with few disappointments. Now to name my predictions for the big categories - this year I'm making it short but sweet...
Hurt Locker, Bigelow, Bridges, Bullock, Waltz, Mo'Nique, Boal, Reitman/Turner.
And I'm out.
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